It is actually a nested loop Hamed. You just pointed out to the inner loop. The much larger outer loop is the alternation between chaos arising from relaxation (I hate to call it democratization) and the subsequent public craving for order, which is followed by the rule of an autocratic saviour.
Here is an interesting article. I wonder what others think about it: Strategy of the ruling faction (in Persian)
The steady state of the system might well be a limit cycle, i.e. the cycles are not going to go away! There is an interesting article, as part of a book, by Professor Khalid Saeed, around a similar phenomenon. He also builds a simulation model which captures these dynamics and suggests the main mode of behavior to be a limit cycle.
Several things have to happen. You have to have a culture that does not tolerate nepotism, cronyism, or bribery. Then you need a Judiciary that is independent of government. The people have to have a mechanism that can fire those who are corrupt or are just doing a bad job. You need a military that will defend the constitution above some leader or general. It helps if society is of one culture and not racially, ethnically, or religiously divided.
This "loop analysis" is valid only for a person who looks at the societies as mathematical objects. I'm not a political analyst but I know the level of knowledge and education among ordinary people increases by time and the more a society is educated the better they respond to democratic examinations.People of Iran today are very different from people of Iran at the time of revolution.
Bahman Yes, I agree that the people in Iran have been educated on the workings of a theocracy. It's been a tough lesson.
Dear readers, I do not know if you ever will get as far as the bottom of the page, but If you do, it is much of pleasure for me to represent you with facts that a) Persian legacy that is well alive today has never tolerated such racial resentments against any friendly nation, ethnic group, religious group and so on including Arabs, a) why there are periodical conflicts in the Middle East region, c) what can be done to end these conflicts. d) What happens if we do not. First, I want to agree on one matter that Mr. Karachian mentioned: "when it gets to collective action, Persians are very weak." even right now, I am contending in addressing the issue by simply writing a short posting. But to tell you the truth, as some one who has lived in Iran for 17 years since the birth, the... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
hay32 I’m heartened that you feel Persia will accept many religions in harmony, something that is soulfully lacking in the Middle East. That is a great step toward a country that can function as a Democracy. You asked “Do you know any nation or people in the world’s history that yesterday has fought a devastating-and-brutally-waged-against-it war with an enemy (hundreds of thousands of mothers lost their kin and in forefront their young sons and cried blood for their loss as the society is still full of disabled people (I know that probably even the thought of these matters has not reached the mind of the Western readers.)) and the day after tells them you are welcome in its country or territory!?” Well, yes of course the United States did after WWII, and we contributed millions to the reconstruction of our former enemies so much that Germany and Japan are... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Ganji is dying in jail. What can we do to prevent it? I can't live with myself if we don't do anything about it.
I'm not sure what we can do. I have been trying to spread the word as much as I can. But the situation is very critical, and I'm afraid we can't do much without taking some real, as opposed to merely virtual and on-the-web, action. Any suggestions?
I agree with both of you. I feel that if I don't do something now, I am going to regret it for many many years to come. Any ideas as what we can do?
in the name of GOD, The idealist Iranian mind usually fails to escape optimism/pessimism. In this case, apparently the loop suffers pessimism.
in the name of GOD, The idealist Iranian mind often fails to escape optimism/pessimism. In this case, apparently the loop suffers from pessimism.