Change "then"s to "than"s, please!

"Tehran-centricism"? They don't know even Tehran. I bet even in Tehran, Ahmadinejd's standing will suprise you. You look no further than certain upscale neighbourhoods in Tehran. What about south Tehran where accomodates a lot of poor or rich religious people? AN strikes a cord with all the poor people ... with religious people ... with those who root for a US invasion. That pretty much includes every one except a bunch of ineffectual self-claimed intellectuals and some others who don't even bother to vote because of their apathy. Rafsanjani's tactic to lure voters backfired big time too. Posters of girls with too much make-up holding rafsanjani's picture just angered basijis and many religious people. Plus those girls and like-minded people never cared to vote for Rafsanjani. This is basically a rebellion of the poor aganist the government's economic policies during the 8 years of rafsanjani's administration and beyond. Keep... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

I think bloggers must be the last group of all to be surprised by their mis-prediction about what Iranians think. Why, I wonder, would one assume that bloggers could predict anything, more than a bunch of people who chat in a coffeeshop could?! After all, bloggers are all caught in a "web" (so aptly named) of discussions in their own virtual (sub-)community, a little bubble world of their own making, and by cross-referencing they do nothing but increase their chances of making errors.

A little explanation is in order. What I meant was often bloggers keep saying the same thing over and over and base their argument on what other bloggers say and this has the potential of leading to a vicious circle. If you say something so many times and hear other say the same thing, you, just because you're only human, tend to believe that that something is in fact true, while it doesn't have to be. In other worlds, living in this little world that is cut off from the real bigger world outside can throw you off big time and give you a wildly biased perspective. I say "cut off" because what Iranian blogger, or what Iranian intellectual for that matter, bothered to go to the poor quarters in Tehran and talk to people?

Okay, "In other words". Damn!

The main point of Nema is well taken. There is a need for broadening of the outreach of blogs. However, I think some of the commenters are confusing two different matters. There is the question of having a realistic picture and the question of what the focus should be on. Many people in the persian blogsphere have been commenting on the weak Moin's campaign. Many knew that he needed to be lucky to make it to the second round. This is what I call a realistic picture and was there already. Then there is the question of focus. Most Iranian bloggers were focusing on Moin's campaign unlike many other Iranians who either didn't know Moin or where attracted by other candidates. Just because Iranian bloggers have different focus does not mean they are wrong! Progressives in most countries have different priorities from the general public. The key is that... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

Continuing on the same line of thought, another reason why people (bloggers as well as more serious analysts) make mistakes in their picture of a social phenomena is sometimes humans need to think what they *desire* is what there *is*. For an example, go back just 7 years in time and recall that everywhere reformists kept saying over and over that the process of reform is not reversible. (Don't you remember?) I always found that hard to fathom. "Why does it have to be an irreversible process?!" Now we see. My explanation (and I'm no expert in socio-psychology) is people just needed to believe in something and that alone made them believe in it. I guess same thing happens to bloggers.

Mehdi Y., Exactly my point: Since a lot of bloggers were for Moin, they thought people too would go for him. What a folly!

Fact of the matter is, the "reformist" movement as we know it has failed. How is it that people wanted reform when much of the blogsphere was promoting that people not vote? How can we change a system and "protest" if you don't want to participate in the electoral process? How could the blogsphere simply assume that people want change, yet not take into consideration their economic well-being? Iranians on the web especially, have an inherent bias. The fact that we're all using computers and readily have access to blogs and the internet is the bias in and of itself. It's interesting how we can promote "democracy" and change while having access to all this technology, while a large number of Iranian residents have no such luxuries whatsoever. Moreover, I had a conversation with a number of my Iranian friends who only several weeks ago were adament about not... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

Behrooz, I enjoyed reading your well-written comment, so nicely divided into equal paragraphs. "The fact that we're all using computers and readily have access to blogs and the internet is the bias in and of itself." Well said! But I'm not syre what you mean by "intellectualization of the situation" (and, much more importantly, what alternative you put forward), because frankly that's all we do (and are capable of doing) around here.

What is meant by that is we're merely appealing to our intellect, which of course there isn't really anything wrong with, but perhaps we were losing sight of the real problems. Those, namely being ignoring our inhernet biases and ignoring the pluralism that prevails in Iran and Iranian culture in general. It is obvious by now that these biases blinded much of the blogsphere. Having a "correct" understanding of pluralism (which is beyond the scope of this discussion for the moment) and how to apply it in the Iranian context is ultimately the goal we ought to strive for if we still want reform. And what's the key? Both education and application.

Behrooz, http://freethoughts.org/archives/000737.php#C7146

Thank you for your comments. I think my point goes beyond blogging as well. What concerns me that English journalism is very "Tehran-centric" as well. In the sense that they ignore what is going on outside of Iran's "elites." There needs to be more attentions on Iran's poor. How many time do you ever hear that a reporter got his news from Kashan, Kerman, or Ardibil. When journalists want to gauge "Iran" they stick exclusively to Tehran, and maybe sometimes visit Qom in case they want to display a "hardliner" perspective. I think in many ways blogs are good tools to close that gap because we are on the ground. However, because of our own demographic bias, we need to make an effort to reach outside of our sphere of familiarity. Its funny, I actually had a scholar tell me he knows whats going on in Iran because he... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

"English journalism is very 'Tehran-centric' as well" Nema, I have to repeat parts of what I said before. With different words though. Let's start knowing Tehran first, shall we? Working-class and bazaari enighbourhoods make up half of Tehran. What you mean by Tehran-centric limits to just a few middle-class, upper middle-class, and upscale neighbourhoods. So let's straighten that out. A few weeks ago, BBC (English) had an article picturing a 60 year old woman (breadwinner of the family of 5 or 6) who had to work at this fingernail manicured woman's classy condo. Everyday she had to take long bus rides from south of Tehran to north where she would work as a maid. Their political views were just eye-opener. So that's for English journalism ;) Back to your other points. I understand you keep an English weblog. What you can do is to handpick your favourite Persian columnists... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

Ok, I know I cannot discuss this issue with you on the same level because, as an American, I am not aware of English language Iranian newspapers. The BBC is the only option for the so-called liberals in my country. Even the few of us who read English language Al-Jazeera online feel we are not getting the same news as you, the people of Iranian, living and breathing the news. As a former journalism student in college, we were taught to admire Al-Jazeera as the first free news in the Arab world, but that was before Bush and the so-called "war" on "terror" (or, as many of us say, the war on anythign that is different from us). Ok, I have gotten off track. What is a good source (or good sources) for English speakers? (Other than this blog.) I am hoping to learn Arabic and Persian in night... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

Kristina, What is clear from the result is that much of the blogsphere and the media were blindsided by this result. Arguably, Iran has one, if not the, most sophisticated cultures in the middle east and Asia, so no matter how much we intellectualized the situation, I don't think we came even close. The BBC had some interviews with Iranians on the street asking who they voted for. It honestly brought a tear to my eye just hearing their plights and reasons. Finally, there are plenty of sources for english speakers that you can find throughout this blog. There's various opinions, and the more you read, the more you can learn.

OK. I hate to be the one who always has to spoil the party, even the newest party of reconsideration, but this is a bit funny, don't you think? What do you expect people to do, try to design their strategies based on the desires of people in a village? It will never happen. The reformists bieleved, and they were right, that no economical solution is possible without a political one in the present condition. So what are you all proposing to do, start giving populistic mottos like these people from now on? Look. You all knew all of this before hand. All of you knew this. Demanding that uneducated people, especially in lower classes, in a third world country, become educated and intellectual enough to ask for democracy we start demanding such luxuries [shaking head] as ddemocracy and freedom is a silly joke! You think the people in... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

AIS, I agree with you that revolutions and changes in the world don't start with intellectuals but by earthly causes. Unfortunately it is lost on a few intellectuals especially perhaps a lot of Iranian ones who imported and copied a half-baked version of the European (influenced by the French) philosophy. The Brits didn't make us colonized, but these fellow Iranians intellectualls indirectly did. French revolution started with a bunch of prostitutes, criminianls, and other people locked up at Bastile. Philosophers got it philosophized and glamourized later. Well, I am making a little bit of exaggerations here to get across a point. But you know what. To answer a comment you made in another post, I have to say that reading those the trend of these revoltuoins are sometimes educational. You will learn for example that those extremists who climbed up the US embassy in the early days of the... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

That is right, and no such ideoligical revolutions in history were brought to democracy by these "reformed" extremists, not in Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China (which is actually the model some of the less canny of them openly aknowledged and belive me China is no democracy!) This "reform" is of the "Animal Farm" kind. I strongly suggest many depressed people read animal farm and its endings again. But seriously the influence of these "modern fascists" is immense. The more time passes, the more their central role in the decline of Iran in the second half of the 20th century till now comes to picture. They now claim to be following Mossadegh. They would hav eripped mossadeegh to pieces if he was alive today for his "radicalism" and "populism". It's actually good to consider their role in making the monarchy so stupidly in close the society as a reaction to... [more at the permalink of the entry above]

Do you honestly think this is a result of class war? Come on buddy - do you think that if they would have permitted a popular reformist to ACTUALLY RUN FOR OFFICE - he/she would not have received the majority of the votes from the poor and the rich combined??? Stop trying to legitimize an illegitimate process. The election was a joke and Iran is on its way to being the biggest international "democratic" joke.

"Pollsters, analysts, and journalists seem to have done a poor job of speaking to ordinary Iranians. Rather, they tended to turn to the residents of posh northern Tehran, intellectuals educated abroad, and bloggers."

Compare your life in Iran to us in England and let us know what you think! e-mail: internet7@excite.com