1-What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate: . i.Ahmadinejad 70% . ii.Hashemi 30% 2-What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad): Vote for Hashemi 3-What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today’s situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative): a. Economic prosperity . i.Ahmadinejad: Very negative . ii.Hashemi: Netural/positive b. Political freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad: Very negative . ii.Hashemi: Neutral/negative c. Social freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad: Very negative . ii.Hashemi: Neutral 4-What will be the effect on Iran’s position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation) . i.Ahmadinejad: Confrontational . ii.Hashemi: Neutral 5-What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising in Iran. (increase/no effect/ decrease) . i.Ahmadinejad: No effect/decrease . ii.Hashemi: No effect 6-What will be the effect on chances of military confrontation with U.S./west (increase/no effect/ decrease) . i.Ahmadinejad:... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1-What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate: . i.Ahmadinejad 55% . ii.Hashemi 45% 2-What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad) Vote for Hashemi 3-What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today’s situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative): a. Economic prosperity . i.Ahmadinejad neutral . ii.Hashemi positive b. Political freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad very negative . ii.Hashemi negative c. Social freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad neutral . ii.Hashemi negative 4-What will be the effect on Iran’s position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation) . i.Ahmadinejad reconciliation . ii.Hashemi reconciliation 5-What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising in Iran. (increase/no effect/ decrease) . i.Ahmadinejad decrease . ii.Hashemi decrease 6-What will be the effect on chances of military confrontation with U.S./west (increase/no effect/ decrease) . i.Ahmadinejad no effect . ii.Hashemi... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1-What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate: . i.Ahmadinejad: 60% . ii.Hashemi: 40% 2-What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad) : Vote for Hashemi 3-What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today’s situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative): a. Economic prosperity . i.Ahmadinejad: very negative . ii.Hashemi: positive b. Political freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad: very negative . ii.Hashemi: negative c. Social freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad: very negative . ii.Hashemi: neutral 4-What will be the effect on Iran’s position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation) . i.Ahmadinejad: confrontation . ii.Hashemi: can’t say! 5-What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising in Iran. (increase/no effect/ decrease) . i.Ahmadinejad: decrease . ii.Hashemi: no effect 6-What will be the effect on chances of military confrontation with U.S./west (increase/no effect/ decrease) .... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1-What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate: I have no idea, and don't like to speculate but I am afraid ahmadi nejad would win! . i.Ahmadinejad . ii.Hashemi 2-What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)I don't vote, for many reasons (mentioned previously) including that I live very far from the centers and that many believe the foreign ballot isn't even counted. I hate Hashemi to the bone; and would surely blame myself is Ahmadi nejad is elected! 3-What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today’s situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative): a. Economic prosperity . i.Ahmadinejad: very negative . ii.Hashemi: taking money from the people to build castles for themselves if I may say! Very negative b. Political freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad: none . ii.Hashemi: none (don't think Iranians know... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1-What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate: see comments 2-What is your position on this election Vote for Hashemi 3-What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today’s situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative): a. Economic prosperity . i.Ahmadinejad very negative . ii.Hashemi very positive b. Political freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad very negative . ii.Hashemi neutral/negative c. Social freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad very negative . ii.Hashemi neutral/negative 4-What will be the effect on Iran’s position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation) . i.Ahmadinejad confrontation . ii.Hashemi reconciliation 5-What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising in Iran. (increase/no effect/ decrease) see comments 7-Among what is considered probable by others, what are the three scenarios that will challenged my thoughts most, and therefore I can learn most from them if they happen. I am not sure... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
What surprises me is how much iranians outside iran (who recently, in the past five year, moved from iran) make a huge deal about the political issues that people inside Iran simply don't care. I cannot convince myself that we "care" more about Iran and we "understand" more than the people in Iran. In reality, none of us will come back to Iran, although we always talk about it (even after leaving for more than 20 year abroad). We don't want to compromise any tiny piece of our good life (academically, technologically, economically, liberally …) here for the sake of our country. I just don't get it why when it comes to elections, we care so much for our motherland??? My friend, if you care so much for your country, why you are still abroad enjoying your life? Go back Iran, live there, face all problems there, and then... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1-What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate: . i.Ahmadinejad 60 . ii.Hashemi 40 2-What is your position on this election Vote for Hashemi 3-What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today’s situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative): a. Economic prosperity . i.Ahmadinejad: comparing to what Hashemi can bring very negative . ii.Hashemi: HOPING positive. At least, in this case he is more informed , based on experience!! b. Political freedoms . i.Ahmadinejad: very very negative (but very very positive also for his own people, military poles) . ii.Hashemi: neutral. I am hoping (this is what I want to happen, not what he would do) that he stays on the current track for political freedom. For freedom of speech to be practiced lawfully, still a long time is required as we all know. c. Social freedoms .... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
wowowowow !! empty generalizations! empty pesimisticism!
A friend tired of playing political games, I am going back to Iran after I finish my studies. And that gives me the strongest right, and th emost valid right, to "play" your so called game! I want to make my future dilemmas easier to handle! There was no logical need to explain anything to you; but I felt the urge.
1. What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate? -- i. Ahmadinejad: 40% -- ii. Hashemi: 60% (This is their share of the vote in my estimate) 2. What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)? Boycott 3. What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today's situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative)? a) Economic prosperity -- i. Ahmadinejad: down the drain -- ii. Hashemi: volatile (up and down, not very stable) b) Political freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: down but with a positive curvature. Saturates quickly due to environmental effects, including but not limited to domestic social pressures building up and international effects. -- ii. Hashemi: down in average, but fluctuating. c) Social freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: We'll see bold but empty attacks on social freedoms. A moderate version of the behaviour... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
A friend: "The problem is we are too young..." "We are too old to spend all of our time “playing”." A friend said other nonsense in her/his comment that I don't find worth my while to respond to.
A friend tired of playing politics games: "In reality, none of us will come back to Iran, although we always talk about it ..." Don't be so naive. There people who are boycotting the elections today and keeping their "dignity" this way. They are waiting for someone ELSE to pave the way for a prefect setting where a prefect election can be held. Then when everything is ready, they will honour all of us by taking part in the election! Rest assured these types of people will start pouring back into Iran where they can benefit from other people's hardships. P.S. BTW, politics may be my hobby, but it is certainly not my hubby (husband) ;)
1. What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate? -- i. Ahmadinejad: 55% -- ii. Hashemi: 45% 2. What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)? Vote for Hashemi 3. What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today's situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative)? a) Economic prosperity -- i. Ahmadinejad: negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral b) Political freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral c) Social freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi: positive 4. What will be the effect on Iran's position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation)? -- i. Ahmadinejad: confrontation -- ii. Hashemi: move towards reconciliation 5. What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising in Iran. (increase/no effect/ decrease)? -- i. Ahmadinejad: decrease -- ii. Hashemi: no effect... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1. What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate? -- i. Ahmadinejad 45% -- ii. Hashemi 55% 2. What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)? Boycott for sure. 3. What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today's situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative)? a) Economic prosperity -- i. Ahmadinejad negative -- ii. Hashemi negative b) Political freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad very negative -- ii. Hashemi very negative c) Social freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad very very very very negative -- ii. Hashemi negative 4. What will be the effect on Iran's position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation)? -- i. Ahmadinejad confrontation -- ii. Hashemi hidden confrontation (is that possible? I guess anything is possible from rafsanjani) 5. What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising in... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Something not so funny: In this poll, everyone who thinks Hashemi have less chance of winning is voting for Hashemi. Isn't that kind of illogical? If you think he is loosing anyways, why do you vote? Is he that adorable and irresistible? Here, when I vote for someone whom I know is not going to win, is because I want to show my moral support of their party, or their politics. Is that what you guys are doing? Because all of you said up to now that the reason you want to vote for Hashemi is tht you want him to win. If you think he is not winning why are you voting? "keh moshte mohkami be dahan-e tahrimi-haa bezanin?"
Shabnam, My best guess may be that candidate 1 will win, but I am not sure about it (I may assign a 60 percent chance that he will win). So, it doesn't feel futile to try to vote for candidate 2. (there is a 40 percent chance for him to win, and my activities can change that chance). The Mathematics that one learns in high school should not only be applied to the problems in the Math book, but also to real life problems. Especially something like probabilities.
Thanks a lot one-liner. I surely needed the logic and the math lesson. Since you did not actually talk about your percentages, I can not do the math for your case. But let's for the sake of argument say that JRun is thinking that Hashemi has 40% chance of winning and the other guy 60%. So let me see if I can get this straight, you think that if he decides to vote for hashemi, his own prediction (60-40) changes to a majority vote for hashemi and he gets elected? That is very interesting math and very very very interesting logic.
Shabnam, It is exactly because we fear A may win that we vote for B. Plain and simple. The illogical logic is the following: Since X is going to win anyway, why do I bother voting for Y?
1. What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate? -- i. Ahmadinejad: 50% -- ii. Hashemi: 45% 2. What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)? Vote for Hashemi (hesitantly) 3. What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today's situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative)? a) Economic prosperity -- i. Ahmadinejad: negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral b) Political freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral c) Social freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi: positive 4. What will be the effect on Iran's position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation)? -- i. Ahmadinejad: confrontation -- ii. Hashemi: confrontation (tries reconciliation but will be prevented by the hardliners and will be drifted to confrontation) 5. What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1. What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate? -- i. Ahmadinejad: 50% -- ii. Hashemi: 45% 2. What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)? Vote for Hashemi (hesitantly) 3. What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today's situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative)? a) Economic prosperity -- i. Ahmadinejad: negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral b) Political freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral c) Social freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi: positive 4. What will be the effect on Iran's position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation)? -- i. Ahmadinejad: confrontation -- ii. Hashemi: confrontation (tries reconciliation but will be prevented by the hardliners and will be drifted to confrontation) 5. What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1. What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate? -- i. Ahmadinejad 55% -- ii. Hashemi 45% 2. What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)? Vote for Hashemi 3. What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today's situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative)? a) Economic prosperity -- i. Ahmadinejad: neutral/negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral/positive b) Political freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: negative -- ii. Hashemi: negative/neutral c) Social freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi: neutral/positive 4. What will be the effect on Iran's position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation)? -- i. Ahmadinejad: not sure -- ii. Hashemi: move towards reconciliation 5. What will be the effect on chances of a democratic uprising in Iran. (increase/no effect/ decrease)? -- i. Ahmadinejad: no effect/increase -- ii. Hashemi: no... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Very funny: "Depth of Ahmadinejad's hole". Let's see, what do you guys think has happened to Raf's hole since 8 years ago? Has it become deeper, maybe because he didn't like the fact that we could get out of his hole the last time?
SG and one-liner, Okay, let me make my comment more clear. What I have heard so far from people who argue to vote for Hashemi is that the want him to win with a big margin so that they cannot rigg the votes again and make ahmadinejad the president. BUT since all of you already believe (or speculate) that ahmadinejad will win, your reasoning (if is similar to what I am describing) won't work. You all speculate that ahmadinejad will win, but still vote for Hashemi. Because of your votes, the voter turn out will be high again, and therefore, as in the first round, can be rigged again. Is it so hard to understand? Anyway, I understand voting out of fear, and I won't say what should be done. I thought about voting too. But at least play the reasonings and your responses a few times in your... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
And one more thing for SG, you said "The illogical logic is the following: Since X is going to win anyway, why do I bother voting for Y?" I cannot agree with you more, when the voting is in a democratic, safe society. Not where none of you can even accept that the first round was not rigged, and none of you can promise than the second round won't be rigged. In a normal democratic society, as I have mentioned it before as well, I always vote for my candidate, regardless of them winning. I want to support them and want my voice to be heard. If you want to vote for Hashemi, make sure that at least your voice is heard. You didn't make noise for rigging the votes in the first round as much as you made noises for ahmadinejad's scary looks (you I mean voters for... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
1. What are the chances of winning (percentage) for each candidate? -- i. Ahmadinejad: 35-40% -- ii. Hashemi: 60-65% 2. What is your position on this election (Boycott, Vote for Hashemi, Vote for Ahmadinejad)? Boycott 3. What will be the effect of each candidates winning, on the following aspects of Iranian society, as compared with today's situation (very positive/positive/neutral/negative/very negative)? a) Economic prosperity -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative -- ii. Hashemi:very very negative b) Political freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: very negative but superficial and ineffective. due to this it will increase them in the long run. -- ii. Hashemi: very negative but subtle and long lasting. c) Social freedoms -- i. Ahmadinejad: the same as above -- ii. Hashemi: neutral/increase a bit at the beginning 4. What will be the effect on Iran's position in nuclear negotiations (move twords reconciliation/ confrontation)? -- i. Ahmadinejad: move towards reconciliation (by force... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Hazhir; I think what you have done is pretty creative and also challenging and I have never seen anything like your suggestion in any other place ...but I am not surprised either after all you are an Iranian and I never doubetd the creative talent of Iranians and I am not even waving the flag, just being matter of factly about it. I won't answer those questions as you presented them because I don't know much about Ahmadinejad and his past other than that he was a Basiji and now the mayor of Tehran. However I will put in my two cents on Rafsanjani. There are two things about Rafsanjani, one is that he is predictably unpredictable and the other is that he is a born leader and this pretty much runs in their family. I remember when in northern california we had a three days, more than twenty... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Ferdowsi's words were beautiful. Roozegar sits us down in front of the teacher very violently every once in a while. I guess the smart ones sit down before they are forced to.
oops. corrcetion of a misspelling: a) Ahamdineshad is victourous with a large margine (ie a landslide) AGAin I must reiterate what I said in the commnets. Principles and logical argumentation and refutations are important not prophecies. For example, the precentages of votes any candiudate will bring is irrelevant and completey useless. Our knowledge of such things are very very limited to base a good predicition on, and in the future similar evenst will remian as limited,so the comparisons of previous predictions will not come in handy either. Just one xample. The same with many other issues. Instead ask logical questions that can be refuted or not with our present knowledge.(As I have tried to do)
If this has come down to reciting Fredowsi I have one too: Sare naakasaan raa barafraashtan vazishaan omid-e behee daashtan sare reshte-ye kheesh gom kardan ast be jeyb andarun maar parvardan ast . . . To lift the head of no-goods and expect a good result from this is losing your own thread and bringing up serpents within your sleeves. (if only Iranians have understood this in the slat 26+ years) and while we are at it, there is another myth that goes well with what our "progressives" are trying to do, to keep safe, and not to face the risky but fruitful choices that will bring real freedom. There is this story about a certain Golden Calf and its seducing familar security in the lack of new, easy to follow, slave-appealing guidlines at the time when Moses was not around and the people were "frightened" by "some" all... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Shabnam, Part of what you say is due to the apparent fact that you don't understand what "probability" means. I don't blame you, because that's quite a contentious concept. (It may be worth noting to those who participated in this game and their two probabilities don't add up to 100%!) Part of it, however, is some of the things that have been argued over and over and responded both here and by Iranian writers. Just go to some political weblogs and you'll see.
SG, I think at this point I need to stop arguing with you. this is going no where. I just want to tell you a story (totally irrelevant to the elections). It was world cup of 1994 finals. We were all gathered at my friends house in "darakeh" to watch the games. There were lots of people, many of them I didn't know. Those days I was in the swimming team of my university, and felt that I was the most athletic person in that room. I was cheering for Italy and hoping for Italy to win. There was a guy, whom I never met before. He was constantly cheering for Brazil (I guess it was Brazil). Anyway, those are sidelines. He was constantly telling me that Italy will loose, and I started to get very annoyed, and it got much worse when Italy actually lost. He was acting... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Shabnam, Surely if I knew you were such a strong girl, I would have thought twice before uttering those "patronizing" words. (Trust me, "probablity" is like "economy". Nobody really understands what it is or how it works!) All sarcasm aside, I'm glad that at least *you* are not pissed off (I am not as much pissed off as I am agitated, if that makes any sense at all) at my remarks. Also, thanks a lot for the story. It had a soothing effect on me because it took this election obsession off my mind for a minute. I have been trying to get back to "normal" and carry on with the stuff I'm supposed to do, but I haven't been very successful. Anyway, to take a little advantage of your little story, I fear that with AhmadiNejad as our president, we will see fewer and fewer women's swimming pools... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Well there goes some of my attempts at divination. I think the first of the scenarios came about and I need to reconsider some of the premises I had about the relative standings et the top of power structure. I still think that the regime has missed a big chance by the defeat of Rafsanjani and is the big loser here. I also hope those who still advocated voting and going for power positions within this system have learned how wrong they were. The People did boycott the system. The hardliners had their usual vote plus probably those in economic hardship that were disilluioned with the "reform" within the system. They should and could have been won over by the real forces of democracy who had called for a grass-root opposition to the entire system. This is still possible and it shows why the ones like Ganji were the... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
hmmmm.....now that Ahmadinejad has been elected, should we be scared?..I will simply copy and paste a portion of my post for another article...it is a bit more relevant here now than before.... What if Ahmadinejad wins the election?. Would that imply that the end is near?. I don't think so. In fact one of the reasons for Vali Faghieh being there is to have a continuity in the stability of Iran with all these presidents and parliament deputies coming and going every four years. Even if Ahmadinejad takes Iran to some unchartered waters, I am not worried. Khatami's Government has been acting in such a risk-free style that I think it is almost imperative that the next president does something little risky ..just for the fun of it!!. I also remember that Richard Nixon was a right wing republican. But he signed the most liberal welfare laws ever. I... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
too late :( ahmadi nejaad wins the election. sorry for my dear country. for those who don't know I still live in iran. I am poor and not reach but I use my brains and I fear a lot for my country.
Salaam doostaan I predict the situation to be much better than the previous years. At least now, the government is uniform and the people who are going to be in power will be less corrupt. All this negative propaganda against Ahmadinezhad is not true and I see a bright future for Iran under his government , if Iranians stop begin superficial and be more pragmatic.
Many unassuming and assuming Iranians are gleeful that AN has won the second round. They keep saying that "things all will turn to one side now" or "the government is uniform" like Rahaa here. Can you just articulate what you mean instead of limiting to some blanket statements like that? Where on earth did a "uniform government" do anything productive? Hitler and Saddam had uniform governments. Squabbling is part of the democratization process. Even democratic governments have it a lot. Rahaa, it seems you live outside of Iran. At least take this opportunity and learn it where you live. Factions (or political parties) inside the governments need to fight each to let ordinary people live by themselves. Otherwise your "uniform government" will have time to shove things up ordinary people's ass. The best example of a "uniform government" that was successful and effective was Nazi Germany or fascist Italy... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
"If politics is to become scientific and if the event is not to be constantly surprising, it is imperative that our political thinking should penetrate more deeply into the springs of human action. What is the influence of hunger upon slogans? How does their effectiveness fluctuate with the number of calogries in your diet? If one man offers you democracy and another offers you a bag of grain, at what stage of starvation will you prefer the grain to the vote? Such questions are far too little considered..." - Bertrand Russell's Nobel Prize acceptance speech.
Salaam The elections showed a devastating disconnection between the intellectuals and the people. They also showed the inability of the reform movement in using their resourses(over 20 million votes) and their reactionary responses to the conservative elements. In my opnion, the Iranian problem is not democracy. Iranians do not want a democracy dictated by the external forces. What Iran needs is a democracy based on Islamic principles which is not out of reach. The reformist intellectuals do not have a clear understanding of the demands of the underrepresented portions of the society. In my opinion, the main problem is forgetting the basic Islamic principles among the Iranian people. Unless this is solved and all Iranians unite under one umbrella based on a quest towards Islamic democracy, nothing will change. Furthermore, Ahmadinezhad is not Saddam Hossen or Hitler. He has is a good man. This is a grave misunderstanding and... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Salaam No dont get me wrong. I am not a proponent of uniform governments. But considering Iran's problems at the moment and the inability of the reformists and their passiveness, uniform government will be more helpful in serving the basic needs of the people. However, I keep my fingures crossed to see the Cabinet. My opnion might well change if Ahmadinezhad chooses the wrong people to lead.
One more thing is that , I agree for now Iranians chose to forget about human rights and democracy(meaning freedom of speech and the press). We didnt have these anyways because of the passive Khatami government. If you see the reformist failure, it is partly the result of Khatami's inability in keeping his promises and standing against the conservatives. But the people chose to elect Ahmadinzehad and of ocurse, he will not respect democracy, and human rights, but if he chooses the right people, Iran can be better in other fronts. For now, we need to forget about the democracy and see that people do not care about democracy(as definied by the international forces) and care more about their basic needs and livelihoods.
Rahaa, You made a few comments that i agree and disagree with many of them. But my question is not Iranians' putting democracy in their priority. As a matter of fact I have made a lot of comments arguing you can't push democracy when people have trouble making the ends meet. Let me focus on my question to you then: You are talking about Islamic democracy, but then you welcome a uniform government or demanding "all Iranians unite under one umbrella based on a quest towards Islamic democracy". Uniformity, being united under one umberlla is contradictory with democracy. Democracy means acknowledging the diveristy of opinions and respecting that. Then how on earth an ultra-conservatives whose supporters beat up Javadi-Amoli (who was with them until a while ago) is supposed to help Iranians achieve "Islamic democracy"? If you accuse me of being cynic of this Ahmadinejad, don't you think that... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Thanks for your comments. In a country where 40% of the people are under the poverty line, talking about democracy is irrelevant. Even in Canada, you deduct all salaries by 50% and you will see people begin tearing each other apart. So I hail Iranian people as a very patient people. The Khatami government was a sham at most and Moein would have been the same thing. All the achievements of the past were superficial. If they were real, believe me, 17 million would not have voted for Ahmadi. We just need to be patient and future will show everything soon.
Raha! Magnificent comments!
OK. I have to try again: Can you articulate what a blanket statement like "future will show everything soon" means? Do you think Ahmadinejad will turn up the heat of the Iran's pressure cooker and eventually it will explode? Or do you think he will spread the Islamic democracy? What are you hoping for?
Hi I think Ahmadinezhad is a missing link towards democracy in Iran. I dont think the society will explode. But just wait and see who will be in his cabinet. I may be very wrong.
Rahaa, in a subtle way I actually agree with you. But let me explain. Ahmadi-nezahd is definitely a fascist, no doubt in that in my mind. But so are all the people in this ystem since itrs inception including the likes of Ebrahim Yazdi in Nehzat Azadi. Fascists and terrorists and unless their system collapses Iran will not see better days than this. The point that was raised this past week however was in arelative fascims, or so it was being presented. The common belief I guess is that Ahmadi-nezhad represents the most fascistic factiosn of this system. One never knows anything for certain, as I continuely insist here, but I don't think so. The most fascistic faction of this system was, is and always has been the leftist islamists who in recent years have dubbed themselves "reformist". They were the most viscious terrorists and killers in the first... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Rahaa, Thanks for your patience. But it seems I can't have you explain your viewpoint in just one shot. So I gotta push it one more notch. "I think Ahmadinezhad is a missing link towards democracy in Iran." Care to elaborate?
Hi The path towards democracy(specially an Islamic democracy) is quite different from the path taken by the west. The kind of democracy that we see in the west will not work for Iran. I do not think Ahmadinezhad is a fascist. Second, dont get me wrong, Iranian revolution was one of the greatest things happened to Iran , but the road towards democracy in a religious system is difficult and requires alot of work by the intellectuals. However, I stree, the system must be Islamic and without Islam, all these rhetoric about democracy is useless. But, one has to see the reality of Islam which is demoratic in nature. What we need is a society that has capacity to accept Dr.Moein and his programs. Maybe we will see this 8 years from now. I just hope that nothing disasterous happens and the US does not interfere with our internal... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
When I say that a nondemocratic person like "Ahmadinezhad" is a missing link in Iranian democracy,I mean that Iranians need to UNDERSTAND that without democracy,long term economic prosperity is impossible. 26 million of our people do not respect human rights, so what are we to say anything???Only 4 million voted Moin.. So talking about democracy with this culture is irrelevant. The people need to experience "fasism", and see for themselves the distasters! I hope it will not be a disasterous experiment though.
THere is somethings that doesn't add up. "When I say that a nondemocratic person like Ahmadinezhad is a missing link in Iranian democracy,I mean that Iranians need to UNDERSTAND that without democracy,long term economic prosperity is impossible." I am trying to think the way you do: democracy first and then economy. Still don't understand how Ahmadinejd is supposed to help democracy. Unless you meant without prosperous economy democracy is impossible. And think that that Ahmadinejad will brong about that prosperous economy. Am I correct?
Rahaa, I'm afraid there is nothing called "Islamic" democracy. Western/European democracies all took root and developed in religious (much darker) age of Europe, and so are completely relevant to our experience. Of course there are local differences, just as the French democracy is different from the Italian one or from the British one. But one thing is the same, and that is the human expereince. These are all the same human experiences. Another thing that is mistaken, I think, in your comments is the sociological analysis of the votes you make. Do we know who voted for whom and why? My answer is a simple no. It is particualrly not true that 26 million people in Iran do not "respect" human rights, even less true that human rights was represented (neither solely nor fully) by Moeen in this elections. Even if this statistical claim was true, even if only... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Hi Please see the following link regarding recent interview with Dr.Ahamdinezhad's cultural consultant. You will be surprised! http://web.peykeiran.com/new/iran/iran_news_body.aspx?ID=24760
By the way, the true democracy can only be realized under Islam. Otherwise, it will look like some thing like the US democracy which is so pathetic, you are ashamed of calling it a democracy.
Rahaa, Your link didn't open, but I guess it must be something like: http://roozonline.com/01newsstory/008181.shtml If hypothetically AN has such a plan, that doesn't make the people behind him any more than a bunch of scumbags. AN is the protege of Mesbah and his team. They control a ruthless and rabid team of bikers who used to beat up people. Remember? Whenever someone from within the system dared to try to challenge the status quo they were out there to intimidate people while they were busy stabbing that attempt from inside. Now that they have the full house, do they really want to do what others could have given us much earlier if it hadn't been because of them? Isn't it because they want to take the credit for it? People who put their own interest ahead of their country and sabotaged everybody's effort to change and made us miss... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Hi You are right about the people around him, but I am not sure if he can afford to give them too much power. If he does, it will not look good for the whole system and it would actually be a disaster for the country. I think they are clever enough to know. Now they have the whole system and they can not blame anyone else. So if they make a mistake, the leader himself is the responsible person. SO this is on positive point about this election. Let us just wait and see what Iran will look like in 4 years.
"...but I am not sure if he can afford to give them too much power." That's why I am still cynic. The guys around him and above him (e.g. Mesbah) are lunatics, and quite frankly if AN has the best intentions, he is just too powerless. And that's too much of optimistically looking at him. Still I see a big contradiction between what his cultural aide had to say and what Mesbah has been cooking for us for so many years. In a nutshell, if AN genuinely means well, he can't do much with Basij and Mesbah and people like them around him. We have to wait for when he is blowen up in an accident or something then. If not, he and his team are just a bunch of liers. BTW, don't count too much on the leader's powers. He also gets his credibility from people like Mesbah... [more at the permalink of the entry above]
Sorry I posted it in the wrong thread. So again: Here is an interesting article. I wonder what others think about it: Strategy of the ruling faction (in Persian)
in the name of GOD, I read here (by itchy_thoughts): "The guys around him [Ahmadinezhad] and above him (e.g. Mesbah) are lunatics" It seems that when we talk about someone like Mr. Mesbah, we have different information sources with different variety and also we have different levels of negligence in deduction that totally yield different results (e.g. of personality of political figures). I do not share the same image with the pessimists, however in the other hand I do not feel very optimistic about most of key political figures in post-revolution Iran (let alone the pre-revolution ones). Please take a look at this PDF: http://www.mcc.org/respub/pon/Peace_Office_01_07_09.pdf From page 7 you can see a beautiful interview with Mr. MesbahYazdi. Compare it to the begginning of this article that indirectly shows Iran and US as enemies while as Mr. MesbahYazdi says, our real enemy is an evil minority abusing the power (including... [more at the permalink of the entry above]