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1. There are many poor people.
2. There is a damn evil corrupt government [?].
3. There is a non-democratic election [?].
4. Elites and the intellectuals [?] are in vacation. They do not waste their precious time over the faint election.
5. The rest go vote and select a president of their kind.
6. Intellectuals are angry and boycott living in such a stupid country to let the world know.
7. The new president takes control and removes corrupt people from the power and replaces them with trusted people who are mainly relatives and friends.
8. They are new, so they will make mistakes to learn the job and the enemy is always there to blame. These mistakes can be as bad as a war.
9. Professionals immigrate at this point because they think they can do better elsewhere.
10. By the time the new government learns how to do its job, they too will become rich and corrupt, or at least the people who are around them [?] will.
11. Go to the first step.
a) How many times have we gone through this loop?
b) How many times will we be going through this loop?
c) What is the steady state of the system?
d) How can we break this loop?
It is actually a nested loop Hamed. You just pointed out to the inner loop. The much larger outer loop is the alternation between chaos arising from relaxation (I hate to call it democratization) and the subsequent public craving for order, which is followed by the rule of an autocratic saviour.
Here is an interesting article. I wonder what others think about it:
Strategy of the ruling faction (in Persian)
The steady state of the system might well be a limit cycle, i.e. the cycles are not going to go away!
There is an interesting article, as part of a book, by Professor Khalid Saeed, around a similar phenomenon. He also builds a simulation model which captures these dynamics and suggests the main mode of behavior to be a limit cycle.
Several things have to happen. You have to have a culture that does not tolerate nepotism, cronyism, or bribery. Then you need a Judiciary that is independent of government. The people have to have a mechanism that can fire those who are corrupt or are just doing a bad job. You need a military that will defend the constitution above some leader or general. It helps if society is of one culture and not racially, ethnically, or religiously divided.
This "loop analysis" is valid only for a person who looks at the societies as mathematical objects. I'm not a political analyst but I know the level of knowledge and education among ordinary people increases by time and the more a society is educated the better they respond to democratic examinations.People of Iran today are very different from people of Iran at the time of revolution.
Bahman
Yes, I agree that the people in Iran have been educated on the workings of a theocracy. It's been a tough lesson.
Dear readers, I do not know if you ever will get as far as the bottom of the page, but If you do, it is much of pleasure for me to represent you with facts that a) Persian legacy that is well alive today has never tolerated such racial resentments against any friendly nation, ethnic group, religious group and so on including Arabs, a) why there are periodical conflicts in the Middle East region, c) what can be done to end these conflicts. d) What happens if we do not. First, I want to agree on one matter that Mr. Karachian mentioned: "when it gets to collective action, Persians are very weak." even right now, I am contending in addressing the issue by simply writing a short posting. But to tell you the truth, as some one who has lived in Iran for 17 years since the birth, the period when the memory is in its best shape, I never remember to feel such a racist look or resentment towards Arabs in Iran. Think of Arabs who live in the south of Iran. Just like all other ethnic people like Kurdish, Turkish, Baluch (it might be surprising to some readers that we even have black in Iran.) and etc. in Persia, Arabs are perfectly free to pursue their own culture, religion, and language. This is the Persian legacy that grants its people the utmost freedom (Persia, the land that once covered the whole Middle East and far beyond that, from the beginning has never been a single-race,-ethnicity,-religion,-or-nationality nation.) That is why, when Arab,-US,-and-the-world backed Iraq (we all have seen the picture of Donald Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam Hussein) attacked Iran in 1980, to their surprise, Arabs of Khuzestan (who are indeed a bit influential and wealthy in the region) did not rise against Persians, but were among the first to rise in support of Persians just as the Kurds did for example. This was another event for keeping alive the same Persian legacy which all people of Persia including those Arabs share. Unlike other nations, when there is such a nationalist uprising in Iran, it is not that of in support of a single-and-unique nation (since Persia from the beginning has never been a single-race,-ethnicity,-religion,-or-nationality nation.), but in keeping alive the legacy of Persian world that "every ethnic, race, or culture is free and granted to keep its own way of living within harmony and respect for other nations, ethnics, races, religion, and cultures. THE LEGACY OF WANTING TO BE DIFFERENT AND STAYING DIFFERENT IN UNION, BECAUSE BEAUTY AND ADVECMENT IS SOLELY POSSIBLE IN UNION OF DEFFRENCES. (It is so true that Persians have nothing in common but their heart-connecting culture of tolerance.) Accordingly, as long as the Arab nations and groups of the region respect this notion and want to stay different, but in harmony and respect for others including people of Persia, the Persian culture would recognize them as part of union and thus our brother and sisters (to Persians, countries’ borders are not the boundary of brotherhood.). To prove the existence of this legacy in today’s Persia and awareness of the Arabs that Persians do have such a legacy, let’s look at a post-Iran-Iraq-war event: after the war, 400,000 Iraqis took refuge out of their country. Half of theses people took refuge in Iran and were granted refuge. Do you know any nation or people in the world’s history that yesterday has fought a devastating-and-brutally-waged-against-it war with an enemy (hundreds of thousands of mothers lost their kin and in forefront their young sons and cried blood for their loss as the society is still full of disabled people (I know that probably even the thought of these matters has not reached the mind of the Western readers.)) and the day after tells them you are welcome in its country or territory!?
Again, I want to point out to the fact that Arabs although not willing to publicize this fact,
but in their culture, they know Persians as an utmost-tolerant people who welcome even the enemies who reach out for friendship. That was the understanding that made those Iraqis to trust this country and take refuge in it.
So why are we hold against each other despite of such a universally exceptional culture?
The answer lies on the Arabs’ side unfortunately. As it got clear in Iran-Iraq war, unfortunately, the West and specifically United States and its Europeans allies are behind the curtain and flaming up the conflicts in the region.(as they have done in Palestine, they did in Bosnia by withdrawing their UN-drafted troops, and having and utmost indifference attitude for the brutal decimations in Africa.) Today, there is not a single gulf’s state that US does not have military base in. Their constant meddling in the affairs of the region without UN’s approval (the US invasion of Iraq is a perfect example.) is the cause behind the periodically flaming –up conflicts due to their traditional divide-and-rule policy. The Arab nations and groups need to understand that the people of region might have a bit of differences, but the interest of the imperialist world is definitely a way in opposition (not simply different) against our once-peacefully diverse region. Let me make one thing clear here since we cannot ignore the truth of history even though it might sound harsh for some. Persians did fight a devastating and cruel war with Arabs in the 1300s. The war was waged by Arabs against Persians on the ground that Persians, the multi-cultural,-ethnical,-nations,-and-religious people of Persia were not all willing to give up their diversity legacy and in short period became all Muslim. The war destroyed the glorious days of a peaceful union throughout the region and caused the instability for upcoming Mongol, Ottoman, and 21st-centuary-Western invasions by taking away diversity in terms of culture, language and of course religions by burning our greatest libraries and converting people to Islam by the force of sword (much similar and in some aspect more brutal than what happened to Indians in Americas: the land in which freedom and justice is possible in terms of injustice and poverty for poor nations of the world) This is part of history and it is already well known by Arabs, Persians, and the intellectual world. Having it not been for those who gave up their lives (it is famous that an influential Zoroastrian clergy who did not agree to ask convince its people to become all Muslim was tortured as his legs and hands was cut one by one by adze to change his mind, but he did not give up.) and time (like “Hakim” Ferdowsi who at the time of Arabic domination wrote a sixty-thousand-couplet divan in pure Persian to revive the Persian language and Persian culture.) for the sake of the Persian Legacy, today, it was hard for us to call ourselves Persian and posses the Persian legacy. (I just wished that the West was more tolerant about allowing its people to get more familiar with this culture.)
But let’s make a simple comparison here between that war and the recent Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s. Wasn’t the Iraq-Iran war the exact copy of that war? In fact, Saddam Hussein took advantage of a) the diversity in Persia where still many embrace the religions of pre-Islam Persia and b) the misinterpreted Islamic belief that non-Muslim are infidels (for his purpose, Christian West was an exception.) to form a national-sentiment tool to wage war against Persia and so to relieve the world from those infidels. And it was the memory of the same old war that united people of Persia from Kurdish, Turkish, Arab, Gilaki and Mazandarani, Baluch, Bakhtiari and so on to fight against the enemy that has come one more time to take away from us our legacy of diversity. So the recent war was not only very similar, but a way stronger in rising nationalism in Persia. So if anything was supposed to cause a racial resentment towards Arabs, would not that been the more-recent war? And if it caused any in tolerance against Arabs, how could Persians simply granted refuge to those Iraqi Arabs who yesterday waged such a brutal act called “war” against them? By what force could even a totalitarian government make its people to accept those who in the very same yesterday killed and committed utmost acts of barbarism against their mothers, fathers, sisters, and brothers, to clean out those infidels from the face of the Earth? And, How come the same misinterpreted ground did not fall in hearts of those Muslim Arabs who live in Iran?
My brothers, this is simply the same alive Persian legacy that has roots in hearts and minds of people of Persia and is well known to Arabs and even Jews along with other people of region which cannot be taught like that of blacks and whites racial problems in America where the acts of racism in the history of that country are so outrageously common that parents and teachers need to constantly teach their children that we are all the same. IF MY ENEMY REAHCES OUT TO ME FOR HELP, I WILL EMBRACE HIM REGARDLESS OF HIS LABEL AND CHARACTERS (the nationality is a label for being different for example). This is the culture of people of Persia.
What can we do to end the conflict in the Middle East?
I want to tell you about what Persians did after the war was over: after war, Persians started to teach Arabic language in schools and media. Do you know any culture so highly tolerant that tolerates the teaching of its enemy’s language just a day after the war? After WWII, Did British or American put Germany or Italian as part of the academic curriculum so that American and British can have a better understanding of German people? Did Germans do that about English? To Western readers, this probably sounds outrageous: learning the language, the key to understanding of an enemy? (Yes, this is the truth. Now, still the Western Historians can ignore the Persia as the mother of modern civilizations. Do not tell the world that Romans held the Persian religion of Mithraism before Christian attacked them.) So why would Persians who strained to keep alive their own language against the very same Arabic do this? We did this so that we can communicate and open dialogue with Arabs and thus, understand each other better and solve the causes of such a brutal act called war. In the big picture, to bring each other in a way in common so that the imperialist West and at top of it, the US would not be able to again make a rift between us easily. We need to the same. We need to open dialogue and the hands of brotherhood towards each other. Also, we need to stop giving room to the spreading shadow of the US in the region: Do not put your hand in hands of Satan who would use the same rifting trick one day against the very you.
What happens if we do not?
I want to ask the Arabs that about Saddam Hussein: the man who once put his hands in hands of the US. The man who was deluded that by the support of the West and the Arabs of Iran, he can not only win the Iraq-Iran war, but he can win it in 3 days. What happened to him? He lost the war till he came forward for a peace treaty. Now today what is happening to him? He is taken off from power and dumped by his former allies.
My brothers, do not put your hand in the hands of Satan. From this platform, just as many intellectual groups have done, I want to warn the Arab nations and groups to remember that the US who has waged war against Saddam Hussein and Iraqi people is the same US that one day shook hands of friendship with him. The same US that one day invaded the Iraq due to the threat of the WMD weapons of that nation, today, has divided the country in to two fighting group of Shiite and Sunni who are both Muslim and one day where each other’s brother. (now the US has an interpreted belief for both Shiite and Sunni that non-the-other sect is infidels and have to be removed from the face of Earth.). The same US who today is creating racial and religious divisions in the favor of you would quite soon put divide between every single one of you even to extend of brother against brother if necessary. But we have a role here. The US can only if WE let them use our diversity against us. Let us live divers but peaceful. America wants you for oil, not for what you are. Again, the people of region might have a bit of differences, but the interest of the imperialist world is definitely a way in opposition against our once-peacefully diverse region. Do not let them make us fight against each other so they can sell their weapons (just as they sold weapons to Indian tribes who used to fight against each other and just as they sold a humongous amount of weapon to Iraq) that makes us weaker and at the end when the oil is gone, we are dumped in the same way. We can live once again in union of diversity if we think and see the above horrible destiny near and change our way by respecting each other and get united again. Do not let our mutual differences to be against us once again. Look at what is happening to our Palestinians brother whose only fault is that they do not posses oil. Be afraid of the future of putting hands in hands of Satan. Still, there is time for reunification. We just need to realize the consequence of not getting together and the hideous intention of the US. Our divers union will scare them off. get cautious and act. The same thing that one day happened to us because of our intolerance of diversity and being divided is happening again, America is widening its shadow on the region by different pretexts through the Persian Gulf region, Iraq and Afghanistan. We can live in peace and solve our differences on our own peacefully. Why should we allow an imperialist power called America to decide on what is good for us? My brothers, here, I am not asking for war against the US. That is not our way. We ourselves have been victims of war. I am asking my brothers in the Arabs’ countries and their governments to stay united with all people of the region including Persia. The united strength of our brotherhood beyond our borders, religions, race and other labels scares America and would be a lesson for those who have similar hideous thoughts. Be afraid. We can still do it. My brothers we can. Our diversity gives us much more in common to trade it for putting our hands in hands of Satan. We are different and we stay different in union and harmony that has advanced us in 5000 years of our history. Cut off the relations with the Satan and reach out for dialogue between all different people of region and void any additional rift that can one day go as deep as brother against brother. Why should trade our divers union for the benefit of America. Stay divers, but do not reach the enemy to invade us and reach its imperialist goal just as Arabs of Persia did. Believe that we can. You and I, we can together.
["Well, I read it;" you might say, "now let's close it!"]hay32
I’m heartened that you feel Persia will accept many religions in harmony, something that is soulfully lacking in the Middle East. That is a great step toward a country that can function as a Democracy. You asked “Do you know any nation or people in the world’s history that yesterday has fought a devastating-and-brutally-waged-against-it war with an enemy (hundreds of thousands of mothers lost their kin and in forefront their young sons and cried blood for their loss as the society is still full of disabled people (I know that probably even the thought of these matters has not reached the mind of the Western readers.)) and the day after tells them you are welcome in its country or territory!?” Well, yes of course the United States did after WWII, and we contributed millions to the reconstruction of our former enemies so much that Germany and Japan are now economic powerhouses. We continue this tradition in Iraq so you may very well bet that in ten or twenty years Iraq will be the dominant powerhouse in the Middle East.
“Today, there is not a single gulf’s state that US does not have military base in.” Well of course there are, the most notable being Saudi Arabia. When Iraq no longer became a threat to Saudi Arabia we got the hell out. Expect us not to hang around when you treat half of our forces as less than human. I’m speaking of course about our female Soldiers who can’t even drive in Saudi Arabia. I wonder if the wonderful tolerance of the Persian culture extends towards women.
“Their constant meddling in the affairs of the region without UN’s approval (the US invasion of Iraq is a perfect example.) is the cause behind the periodically flaming –up conflicts due to their traditional divide-and-rule policy.” Excuse me for being simplistic but I really doubt that the UN has the best interest of the US at heart. During the cold war the UN always sided with the Soviets against the US. Despite insuring the sovereignty of many nations we were the whipping boy of every left wing government, including many in Europe. Especially the so called “non aligned” nations of the third world. Cuba was “non aligned”. So I really have no respect for the UN and will resist any efforts by our Government to subjugate our national interests to the UN.
“Western invasions by taking away diversity in terms of culture, language and of course religions by burning our greatest libraries and converting people to Islam by the force of sword (much similar and in some aspect more brutal than what happened to Indians in Americas: the land in which freedom and justice is possible in terms of injustice and poverty for poor nations of the world) “ WTF? The west did this? Americans did this? Please provide links. I seriously doubt any western power forced the conversion of Iranians to Islam.. Prove me wrong, I’m always willing to learn. Maybe you are referring to the British who arbitrarily drew boundaries that ignored the ethnic and religious ties that bound a people together. Not our fault. But I doubt even the British burned libraries, sounds more like the Taliban.
“Do you know any culture so highly tolerant that tolerates the teaching of its enemy’s language just a day after the war? After WWII, Did British or American put Germany or Italian as part of the academic curriculum so that American and British can have a better understanding of German people?” Yes, German has been a part of the school curriculum before and after WW2.
“ The same US that one day invaded the Iraq due to the threat of the WMD weapons of that nation, today, has divided the country in to two fighting group of Shiite and Sunni who are both Muslim and one day where each other’s brother. (now the US has an interpreted belief for both Shiite and Sunni that non-the-other sect is infidels and have to be removed from the face of Earth.)”. We are not the ones that are trying to ignite a civil war between Shiite and Sunni. You can not so insult the intelligence of the Iraqi people to even think that the dumbest will believe this. The terrorist who blow up Shiites during their most Holy of celebrations at Mosques for the love of Allah, you can only blame the Jihadists
“America wants you for oil, not for what you are.” If that were true we would just let you sell your oil and things would be better for everyone but the people under your yolk. We have not profited by complicating the sell of oil in the ME. If we were mostly concerned with oil we would have dropped the sanctions and let the oil flow. Learn simple economics.
“Do not let them make us fight against each other so they can sell their weapons (just as they sold weapons to Indian tribes who used to fight against each other and just as they sold a humongous amount of weapon to Iraq) that makes us weaker and at the end when the oil is gone, we are dumped in the same way“ The weapons sold to Indians were not in any way sanctioned by the US government, in most cases it was illegal. The Indians that defeated Custer were better armed than the US Cavalry. Please learn a little about American history before you espouse an opinion about it.
“Look at what is happening to our Palestinians brother whose only fault is that they do not posses oil.” Well other faults your Palestinian bothers have is blowing up civilians, something your fellow Iraqis may not have much sympathy for.
“My brothers, here, I am not asking for war against the US. That is not our way.” Could have fooled me.
["Well, I read it;" you might say, "now let's close it!"]Ganji is dying in jail. What can we do to prevent it? I can't live with myself if we don't do anything about it.
I'm not sure what we can do. I have been trying to spread the word as much as I can. But the situation is very critical, and I'm afraid we can't do much without taking some real, as opposed to merely virtual and on-the-web, action. Any suggestions?
I agree with both of you. I feel that if I don't do something now, I am going to regret it for many many years to come. Any ideas as what we can do?
in the name of GOD,
The idealist Iranian mind usually fails to escape optimism/pessimism.
In this case, apparently the loop suffers pessimism.
in the name of GOD,
The idealist Iranian mind often fails to escape optimism/pessimism.
In this case, apparently the loop suffers from pessimism.