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June 27, 2005

Loop of Loot
Hamed Seyed-allaei  [info|posts]

1. There are many poor people.
2. There is a damn evil corrupt government [?].
3. There is a non-democratic election [?].
4. Elites and the intellectuals [?] are in vacation. They do not waste their precious time over the faint election.
5. The rest go vote and select a president of their kind.
6. Intellectuals are angry and boycott living in such a stupid country to let the world know.
7. The new president takes control and removes corrupt people from the power and replaces them with trusted people who are mainly relatives and friends.
8. They are new, so they will make mistakes to learn the job and the enemy is always there to blame. These mistakes can be as bad as a war.
9. Professionals immigrate at this point because they think they can do better elsewhere.
10. By the time the new government learns how to do its job, they too will become rich and corrupt, or at least the people who are around them [?] will.
11. Go to the first step.

a) How many times have we gone through this loop?
b) How many times will we be going through this loop?
c) What is the steady state of the system?
d) How can we break this loop?

Arash Jalali at June 27, 2005 05:26 PM [permalink]:

It is actually a nested loop Hamed. You just pointed out to the inner loop. The much larger outer loop is the alternation between chaos arising from relaxation (I hate to call it democratization) and the subsequent public craving for order, which is followed by the rule of an autocratic saviour.

An Iranian Student (AIS) at June 28, 2005 04:33 AM [permalink]:

Here is an interesting article. I wonder what others think about it:
Strategy of the ruling faction (in Persian)

hazhir rahmandad at June 28, 2005 01:04 PM [permalink]:

The steady state of the system might well be a limit cycle, i.e. the cycles are not going to go away!
There is an interesting article, as part of a book, by Professor Khalid Saeed, around a similar phenomenon. He also builds a simulation model which captures these dynamics and suggests the main mode of behavior to be a limit cycle.

Rancher at June 28, 2005 04:00 PM [permalink]:

Several things have to happen. You have to have a culture that does not tolerate nepotism, cronyism, or bribery. Then you need a Judiciary that is independent of government. The people have to have a mechanism that can fire those who are corrupt or are just doing a bad job. You need a military that will defend the constitution above some leader or general. It helps if society is of one culture and not racially, ethnically, or religiously divided.

Bahman at June 29, 2005 07:08 AM [permalink]:

This "loop analysis" is valid only for a person who looks at the societies as mathematical objects. I'm not a political analyst but I know the level of knowledge and education among ordinary people increases by time and the more a society is educated the better they respond to democratic examinations.People of Iran today are very different from people of Iran at the time of revolution.

Rancher at June 29, 2005 06:02 PM [permalink]:


Yes, I agree that the people in Iran have been educated on the workings of a theocracy. It's been a tough lesson.

hay32 at June 29, 2005 07:02 PM [permalink]:
Dear readers, I do not know if you ever will get as far as the bottom of the page, but If you do, it is much of pleasure for me to represent you with facts that a) Persian legacy that is well alive today has never tolerated such racial resentments against any friendly nation, ethnic group, religious group and so on including Arabs, a) why there are periodical conflicts in the Middle East region, c) what can be done to end these conflicts. d) What happens if we do not. First, I want to agree on one matter that Mr. Karachian mentioned: "when it gets to collective action, Persians are very weak." even right now, I am contending in addressing the issue by simply writing a short posting. But to tell you the truth, as some one who has lived in Iran for 17 years since the birth, the period when the memory is in its best shape, I never remember to feel such a racist look or resentment towards Arabs in Iran. Think of Arabs who live in the south of Iran. Just like all other ethnic people like Kurdish, Turkish, Baluch (it might be surprising to some readers that we even have black in Iran.) and etc. in Persia, Arabs are perfectly free to pursue their own culture, religion, and language. This is the Persian legacy that grants its people the utmost freedom (Persia, the land that once covered the whole Middle East and far beyond that, from the beginning has never been a single-race,-ethnicity,-religion,-or-nationality nation.) That is why, when Arab,-US,-and-the-world backed Iraq (we all have seen the picture of Donald Rumsfeld shaking hands with Saddam Hussein) attacked Iran in 1980, to their surprise, Arabs of Khuzestan (who are indeed a bit influential and wealthy in the region) did not rise against Persians, but were among the first to rise in support of Persians just as the Kurds did for example. This was another event for keeping alive the same Persian legacy which all people of Persia including those Arabs share. Unlike other nations, when there is such a nationalist uprising in Iran, it is not that of in support of a single-and-unique nation (since Persia from the beginning has never been a single-race,-ethnicity,-religion,-or-nationality nation.), but in keeping alive the legacy of Persian world that "every ethnic, race, or culture is free and granted to keep its own way of living within harmony and respect for other nations, ethnics, races, religion, and cultures. THE LEGACY OF WANTING TO BE DIFFERENT AND STAYING DIFFERENT IN UNION, BECAUSE BEAUTY AND ADVECMENT IS SOLELY POSSIBLE IN UNION OF DEFFRENCES. (It is so true that Persians have nothing in common but their heart-connecting culture of tolerance.) Accordingly, as long as the Arab nations and groups of the region respect this notion and want to stay different, but in harmony and respect for others including people of Persia, the Persian culture would recognize them as part of union and thus our brother and sisters (to Persians, countries’ borders are not the boundary of brotherhood.). To prove the existence of this legacy in today’s Persia and awareness of the Arabs that Persians do have such a legacy, let’s look at a post-Iran-Iraq-war event: after the war, 400,000 Iraqis took refuge out of their country. Half of theses people took refuge in Iran and were granted refuge. Do you know any nation or people in the world’s history that yesterday has fought a devastating-and-brutally-waged-against-it war with an enemy (hundreds of thousands of mothers lost their kin and in forefront their y ["Toooo long!" editors say, "Here: click to read the whole thing!"]
Rancher at June 29, 2005 11:25 PM [permalink]:
hay32 I’m heartened that you feel Persia will accept many religions in harmony, something that is soulfully lacking in the Middle East. That is a great step toward a country that can function as a Democracy. You asked “Do you know any nation or people in the world’s history that yesterday has fought a devastating-and-brutally-waged-against-it war with an enemy (hundreds of thousands of mothers lost their kin and in forefront their young sons and cried blood for their loss as the society is still full of disabled people (I know that probably even the thought of these matters has not reached the mind of the Western readers.)) and the day after tells them you are welcome in its country or territory!?” Well, yes of course the United States did after WWII, and we contributed millions to the reconstruction of our former enemies so much that Germany and Japan are now economic powerhouses. We continue this tradition in Iraq so you may very well bet that in ten or twenty years Iraq will be the dominant powerhouse in the Middle East. “Today, there is not a single gulf’s state that US does not have military base in.” Well of course there are, the most notable being Saudi Arabia. When Iraq no longer became a threat to Saudi Arabia we got the hell out. Expect us not to hang around when you treat half of our forces as less than human. I’m speaking of course about our female Soldiers who can’t even drive in Saudi Arabia. I wonder if the wonderful tolerance of the Persian culture extends towards women. “Their constant meddling in the affairs of the region without UN’s approval (the US invasion of Iraq is a perfect example.) is the cause behind the periodically flaming –up conflicts due to their traditional divide-and-rule policy.” Excuse me for being simplistic but I really doubt that the UN has the best interest of the US at heart. During the cold war the UN always sided with the Soviets against the US. Despite insuring the sovereignty of many nations we were the whipping boy of every left wing government, including many in Europe. Especially the so called “non aligned” nations of the third world. Cuba was “non aligned”. So I really have no respect for the UN and will resist any efforts by our Government to subjugate our national interests to the UN. “Western invasions by taking away diversity in terms of culture, language and of course religions by burning our greatest libraries and converting people to Islam by the force of sword (much similar and in some aspect more brutal than what happened to Indians in Americas: the land in which freedom and justice is possible in terms of injustice and poverty for poor nations of the world) “ WTF? The west did this? Americans did this? Please provide links. I seriously doubt any western power forced the conversion of Iranians to Islam.. Prove me wrong, I’m always willing to learn. Maybe you are referring to the British who arbitrarily drew boundaries that ignored the ethnic and religious ties that bound a people together. Not our fault. But I doubt even the British burned libraries, sounds more like the Taliban. “Do you know any culture so highly tolerant that tolerates the teaching of its enemy’s language just a day after the war? After WWII, Did British or American put Germany or Italian as part of the academic curriculum so that American and British can have a better understanding of German people?” Yes, German has been a part of the school curriculum before and after WW2. ["Toooo long!" editors say, "Here: click to read the whole thing!"]
one-liner at July 2, 2005 02:05 AM [permalink]:

Ganji is dying in jail. What can we do to prevent it? I can't live with myself if we don't do anything about it.

Babak S at July 2, 2005 02:46 AM [permalink]:

I'm not sure what we can do. I have been trying to spread the word as much as I can. But the situation is very critical, and I'm afraid we can't do much without taking some real, as opposed to merely virtual and on-the-web, action. Any suggestions?

Shabnam at July 2, 2005 02:54 AM [permalink]:

I agree with both of you. I feel that if I don't do something now, I am going to regret it for many many years to come. Any ideas as what we can do?

Armin Shams at November 16, 2005 06:19 PM [permalink]:

in the name of GOD,

The idealist Iranian mind usually fails to escape optimism/pessimism.

In this case, apparently the loop suffers pessimism.

Armin Shams at November 16, 2005 06:25 PM [permalink]:

in the name of GOD,

The idealist Iranian mind often fails to escape optimism/pessimism.

In this case, apparently the loop suffers from pessimism.