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June 13, 2005

Chaos Theory
Kaveh Khodjasteh  [info|posts]

chaos2.jpg Stalin's iron fist in Russia effectively boosted the Russian resistance against Hitler and saved many lives but he was also responsible for death and effective shortening of many other lives as well. President Bush was reelected this year despite the last minute predictions of polls and projections of many political analysts. History seems to follow no pattern.

The lesson is that there is simply no lesson to learn(*). Politics due to <put your favorite reason here> is not a deterministic game.

There is no guarantee of what is going to happen to Iran after this presidential elections and many of the heated debates going on about boycott or supporting a specific candidate are at best superficial.

I know this was a lousy post but I thought the nihilistic nonchalant should have a voice as well.

(*) Reminds me of "We learn from history that we never learn anything from history," as Hegel said.

An Iranian Student (AIS) at June 13, 2005 10:08 PM [permalink]:

yes, but you can speak of probability distributions and propensities in cahotic systems,whose evolution ae determinitic, can't you? :-) (Such theories would be just guesswork too, but that is how our knwoledge is about anything else anyway so not really relevant)

Elizabeth at June 14, 2005 12:25 AM [permalink]:

I see what you're saying!
May I add that the only reason why Bush won (in my humble opinion), is because his opponent, John Kerry, stood for NOTHING which made the American people afraid. How could a person with absolutely no principals and no opinions of his own defend a country against future terrorist attacks?
I think some Americans felt like they had to choose between a bad candidate, and a worse candidate.

Sahand Mirzahossein at June 14, 2005 01:40 AM [permalink]:

I agree to a certain extent. On one hand, it is indeed impossible to divine the consequences of a certain political event, such as the coming elections in Iran. Politics on the whole, however, tend to follow a similar pattern, one which is being followed by America today. I'm not entirely familiar with chaos theory so I can't comment on that, but I would argue that generally, democratic political systems follow a pattern which ultimately leads to the consolidation of power in a single entity, be it a person or a governing body, which ultimately turns a republic into an empire of sorts.

Just my opinion, of course...

An Iranian Student (AIS) at June 14, 2005 02:34 AM [permalink]:

Been watchin Star Wars lately? ;->

BTW, the main reason why historical events are unpredictable has to do with the growth of knowledge. As Popper points out, we can not know what the will be known in the future, because otherwise we would have already known it!This is more important than the chaotic aspect. ie. the sensitivity on initial conditions.
The main moral is that we should decide based on our sound judgment and morally in case of political decisions. Being too pragmatic can be an instance of self-deception.

Yaser K at June 14, 2005 12:09 PM [permalink]:

Lazy students always complain that the questions in their exam are difficult (or chaotic) and hard to solve.

Behdad at June 14, 2005 12:27 PM [permalink]:

Yaser K: ye ye ye ye.