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July 28, 2003

Worst Case Scenario
Kaveh Khodjasteh  [info|posts]

puzzle.gifThis is partly in reply to Vahid's comment on The Art of Brinksmanship:

A civil war does not loom on the horizon of the Iranian politics. In fact a civil war needs two (or more) armed adversaries in the country to fight it. I think after the demise of the MKO in Iraq and considering the (already waning) influence that the Iranian military and paramilitary forces enjoy currently in Afghanistan, Kurdistan and maybe the Persian Gulf, the second adversary has to be created from scratch.

However I can think of a worst case scenario in which the centre-right elements in the political tree of the Iranian government strike a "new deal" with the less conservative elements in the US administration and after some diplomatic bargain start a new centrist and politically de-motivated government. This would further postpone a "democracy from within" in Iran for another decade or so. As you can see with the arrangement and diversity of the players in the Iranian politics even this seems too remote a possibility to happen. Even if come true, the outcome of this scenario, many will argue, is not that sever after all. Now who wants to care about politics?

The above lines have many other instances in Iranian Politics and open my eyes to an existential tragedy: The most severe thing about politics in Iran is that it is not severe.